Democracy's Silent Erosion
The Global Autocratic March
With every article and podcast episode, we provide comprehensive study materials: References, Executive Summary, Briefing Document, Quiz, Essay Questions, Glossary, Timeline, Cast, FAQ, Table of Contents, Index, Polls, 3k Image, and Fact Check.
Freedom doesn't disappear overnight. It erodes gradually, like a slow-moving mudslide that's barely perceptible until your foundation is already compromised.
The findings from the V-Dem Institute's Democracy Report 2025 confirm what many of us have sensed intuitively: democracy worldwide isn't just under pressure—it's actively losing ground at an accelerating pace. The data paints a sobering picture that should concern everyone who values basic freedoms and human dignity.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Let's start with the most alarming statistic: 72% of the world's population—5.8 billion people—now live under autocratic rule. This represents the highest percentage since 1978. Think about that. Nearly three-quarters of humanity lives in countries where power is concentrated, opposition is suppressed, and citizens have limited say in their governance.
For the first time since 2002, there are more autocracies (91) than democracies (88) in the world. Liberal democracies—those with not just elections but strong protections for individual rights and rule of law—have dwindled to just 29 countries, representing a mere 12% of the global population.
These aren't just abstract statistics. They represent the lived reality of billions of people who face daily constraints on their freedom of expression, access to information, and ability to organize collectively.
How Democracies Die
The playbook for dismantling democracy has become depressingly familiar. The primary weapon? Attacking freedom of expression. In 44 countries, media censorship has intensified. Rather than outright bans, we're seeing more subtle forms of control—economic pressure on independent outlets, harassment of journalists, weaponization of defamation laws, and flooding the information space with government propaganda.
After throttling free expression comes the undermining of elections and the crushing of civil society. Independent organizations that give citizens a voice and check governmental power face increasing repression in 41 countries, from Belarus to India, Peru to the Philippines.
Even academic freedom and cultural expression are under assault in dozens of nations. The comprehensive nature of these attacks reveals a systematic approach to extinguishing the oxygen that democracy needs to breathe.
The Fatality Rate
Perhaps most disturbing is what the report calls the "fatality rate" of backsliding democracies. Of the 45 countries currently experiencing autocratization, 27 started as democracies. And of those 27, only 9 remain democracies today. That's a 67% failure rate—two-thirds of democracies that start down the autocratic path ultimately succumb to it.
This suggests that once democratic erosion begins, it's extraordinarily difficult to reverse. The institutional guardrails get dismantled one by one until there's nothing left to prevent a full authoritarian takeover.
No Region Is Immune
While Eastern Europe and South/Central Asia have experienced particularly steep democratic declines, what's truly unsettling is that even democratic strongholds aren't immune. North America and Western Europe have seen their average democracy scores fall back to levels last observed around 1983—a disturbing regression of forty years.
Belarus has become Europe's first closed autocracy in 25 years. Democratic breakdown has occurred in Georgia and Indonesia. Military coups have led directly to closed autocracies in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
The global spread of this phenomenon suggests underlying systemic factors rather than isolated incidents. It's a contagion of autocratization, spreading across borders and continents.
Glimmers of Hope
Despite this grim landscape, the report offers some reasons for cautious optimism. Nineteen countries—representing about 6% of the world's population—are actively democratizing. Two-thirds of these 452 million people live in just three nations: Brazil, Poland, and Thailand.
Even more encouraging are what the report calls "U-turn democratizations"—countries that began sliding toward autocracy but managed to reverse course. Poland halted its autocratic drift after its 2023 election. Botswana maintained democratic stability despite challenges. Brazil reversed its autocratization following its 2022 election. Zambia shifted back to electoral democracy in 2022.
These examples prove that democratic resilience is possible, that the slide toward autocracy isn't inevitable or irreversible. They offer crucial lessons about how civic mobilization, electoral participation, and institutional courage can help preserve democratic systems under threat.
The Watch List: Canaries in the Coal Mine
The V-Dem report introduces a new "watch list" that functions as an early warning system, identifying countries showing signs of potential autocratization or democratization. Seven nations are flagged for possible autocratic turns: Cyprus, Slovakia, Slovenia, Namibia, Russia, Madagascar, and Togo. Three show hopeful signs of democratization: Czechia, Chad, and Mozambique.
This preemptive approach might help focus international attention and advocacy before democratic backsliding becomes entrenched and harder to reverse.
Disinformation and Polarization
The report makes an important observation about government-sponsored disinformation: it tends to decrease when countries democratize. However, political polarization has a more complex relationship with democracy. While intense polarization can fuel autocratization by destroying trust and dividing society, democratization doesn't automatically reduce polarization.
This highlights how democracy requires not just formal institutions but also a shared commitment to facts, truth, and the legitimacy of political opponents—social foundations that have been dangerously eroded in many countries.
What This Means For You
You might be wondering why this matters if you live in a stable democracy. The answer is simple: no democracy is immune. The forces undermining democratic governance worldwide—propaganda, disinformation, extreme polarization, erosion of institutional norms—are present everywhere.
Democratic decline rarely announces itself with dramatic coups or overnight revolutions. Instead, it proceeds incrementally through seemingly minor infractions that, in isolation, might not trigger alarm bells. A politically motivated judicial appointment here. A media outlet pressured into self-censorship there. A corruption investigation buried. Electoral rules tweaked to favor incumbents.
By the time the pattern becomes obvious, democratic guardrails may already be too damaged to function. The proverbial frog slowly boils.
The Way Forward
Understanding these global patterns helps us recognize warning signs in our own political contexts. It reminds us that democracy isn't a fixed achievement but rather a continuous process requiring vigilance and active participation.
The countries that have successfully reversed autocratization share common elements: robust civic engagement, independent media that survived despite pressure, opposition forces that maintained unity despite attempts to divide them, and citizens who recognized the warning signs and mobilized before it was too late.
Democracy's future hinges not just on formal institutions but on an informed citizenry committed to protecting basic freedoms and demanding accountability from those in power. It requires us to seek out reliable information, support independent journalism, engage in good-faith dialogue across political differences, and participate meaningfully in democratic processes.
The V-Dem report serves as both warning and call to action. Democracy worldwide faces its greatest challenge in generations. Whether it survives and thrives depends not just on political leaders but on ordinary citizens recognizing what's at stake and committing themselves to its defense.
Because in the end, democracy doesn't die in darkness. It dies in broad daylight, with many people watching but too few acting until it's too late.
Link References
DEMOCRACY REPORT 2025: 25 Years of Autocratization – Democracy Trumped?
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STUDY MATERIALS
Briefing Document
Executive Summary:
The V-Dem Democracy Report 2025, titled "25 Years of Autocratization – Democracy Trumped?", presents a comprehensive and often concerning assessment of global democratic trends. Utilizing a vast dataset and a sophisticated methodology, the report highlights a continuing decline in liberal democracy worldwide, marked by significant autocratization episodes and worrying trends in key democratic indicators such as violence, media freedom, and political polarization. While there are instances of democratic progress, particularly in some "U-turn" countries, the overall picture indicates a challenging environment for democratic institutions. The report also introduces a "Watchlist" of countries nearing either autocratization or democratization thresholds. The United States is identified as a potential "Democratic Breakdown in the Making?".
Key Themes and Important Ideas/Facts:
Deepening Global Democratic Decline: The central theme of the report is the persistent and deepening global democratic decline. The report emphasizes "25 Years of Autocratization" and uses phrases like "Global Democratic Decline Deepens" to underscore this trend.
Quote: "##### DEMOCRACY REPORT 2025\n### 25 Years of Autocratization – Democracy Trumped?\n# V-Dem is a unique approach to measuring democracy – historical,\n# multidimensional, nuanced, and disaggregated – employing\n# state-of-the-art methodology."
Visual Evidence: Figure 2 and Figure 3 consistently show a downward trend in the Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) on global averages, whether unweighted, population-weighted, territory-weighted, or GDP-weighted, particularly over the last decade.
The V-Dem Methodology: The report details V-Dem's approach to measuring democracy, which is described as "historical, multidimensional, nuanced, and disaggregated". It relies on over 4,200 scholars and country experts, producing a vast dataset. The methodology includes the Electoral Democracy Index (EDI) and the Liberal Democracy Index (LDI), along with other component indices. The report also highlights the use of confidence intervals to indicate uncertainty in classifications and measurements.
Quote: "Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) produces the largest global dataset on democracy with over 31 million data points for 202 countries from 1789 to 2024."
Quote: "The V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) captures both liberal and electoral aspects of democracy based on the 71 indicators included in the Liberal Component Index (LCI) and the Electoral Democracy Index (EDI)."
Quote: "Involving over 4,200 scholars and other country experts, V-Dem measures over 600 different attributes of democracy."
Autocratization Episodes Outnumber Democratization Episodes: The report explicitly states that a larger number of countries are undergoing autocratization compared to those experiencing democratization.
Quote: "A View of the 64 Countries – Across Regions The 45 autocratizing and the 19 democratizing countries are distributed across all regions of the world, as shown in Figure 12."
Visual Evidence: Figure 12 illustrates the distribution of autocratizing and democratizing countries across different regions, showing a higher number of autocratizers in most regions.
Specific Manifestations of Decline: The report points to several specific areas where democratic decline is most evident.
Quote: "Violence, Media, and Polarization Worsening the Most"
Specific indicators worsening include: undermined transparent laws, reduced legislative capacity to investigate the executive, and increased political killings by the state or its agents.
Quote: "Finally, among liberal aspects of democracy, 32 countries have significantly increasingly undermined transparent laws with predictable enforcement, 29 have worsened in terms of legislature’s capacity to investigate the executive’s unconstitutional behavior, and in 27 countries, political killings by the state or its agents without due process of law and for political reasons are becoming increasingly more common."
Regime Classification and "Grey Zones": The report uses a four-category regime classification: Liberal Democracy, Electoral Democracy, Electoral Autocracy, and Closed Autocracy. It also acknowledges "grey zone" countries where confidence intervals overlap, making classification less certain.
Quote: "Grey Zone\nCountries belong in this category if confidence intervals overlap\nmaking the classification\nmore uncertain."
Visual Evidence: Table 1 provides a list of countries categorized by their regime type in 2024, indicating countries in "grey zones" with plus/minus signs. Figure 6 shows the regional shares of population by regime type, including grey zones.
"Bell-Turns" and "U-Turns": The report defines and identifies countries undergoing "Bell-turns" (democratization followed by autocratization) and "U-turns" (autocratization followed by democratization).
Quote: "Bell-turns are episodes of regime transformation where democratization is directly followed by autocratization. Inversely, U-turns are episodes of regime transformation where autocratization is closely followed by democratization."
Examples provided include Niger (Bell-turn to Closed Autocracy) and El Salvador (Bell-turn from democratic deepening). Countries identified as U-turn democratizers in 2024 include Poland, Brazil, Bolivia, Thailand, Benin, Zambia, Ecuador, Lesotho, Maldives, and Tunisia (Figure 19).
Notable Autocratizing Countries: The report lists and highlights several countries experiencing significant autocratization.
Quote: "The 45 autocratizing... countries are distributed across all regions of the world..."
Table 5 lists countries with the largest magnitude of decline on the LDI during ongoing autocratization episodes, including Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Niger, Myanmar, and Indonesia. Case studies on Niger and El Salvador illustrate the nature of these declines.
Democratizing Countries: While fewer in number, the report identifies countries that are democratizing.
Quote: "...the 19 democratizing countries are distributed across all regions of the world..."
Figure 18 shows "stand-alone" democratizers like Fiji, Seychelles, Solomon Islands, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Timor-Leste, Montenegro, The Gambia, and Sri Lanka. Table 8 lists these countries by magnitude of improvement on the LDI.
"Near Misses" and "Watchlists": The report introduces categories for countries showing smaller changes (0.05 to 0.1 on the EDI) towards either autocratization ("near misses" of autocratization) or democratization ("near misses" of democratization). Countries with changes above a higher threshold (0.075) are placed on a "Watchlist".
Quote: "Since last year, we label as “near misses” countries that are at least halfway towards becoming autocratizers or democratizers (changes are between 0.05 and 0.1 on the EDI scale from 0 to 1)."
Quote: "Countries that are above a higher threshold (0.075 on the EDI) have gone at least three-quarters of the way, and we label such cases “Watchlist” countries."
Table 11 lists Watchlist Autocratizers including Slovakia, Slovenia, Namibia, and Russia. Table 12 lists Watchlist Democratizers including Guatemala, Malaysia, and Czechia.
The United States as a Potential "Democratic Breakdown in the Making?": The report specifically flags the USA in its Watchlist section, raising concerns about its democratic trajectory.
Quote: "USA – A Democratic Breakdown in the Making? 46" (Referencing a specific section title).
While the excerpt does not provide the full details of this section, the inclusion in this report with this title is a significant point. Later in the excerpt, under "Demscore", a reference to "USA" is present in Figure A5 listing countries by their V-Dem index scores, placing the USA at rank 24 on the LDI. Another excerpt references actions taken by a "Trump admin" and the closure of USAID, which "will have grave and enduring consequences not only for the US, but also for democracy globally".
Quote: "In at least 11 lawsuits,37 plaintiffs argue that DOGE has flouted laws and rules around data and privacy. Due to its opacity, it is not possible to know how far DOGE has gone, but it has already fired tens of thousands of government employees. Among them are United States Agency for International Development (USAID) officers, effectively closing an agency instituted by a Congressional act. That will have grave and enduring consequences not only for the US, but also for democracy globally since USAID was by far the largest actor in the international democracy support community." (Note: "DOGE" appears to be a placeholder or code for a specific entity, potentially related to recent political developments in the US as suggested by the context of Trump and USAID.)
Disinformation and Polarization: The report identifies government disinformation and political polarization as worsening trends, particularly in autocratizing countries.
Visual Evidence: Figure 1 plots mean changes in Government Disinformation and Political Polarization, showing an increase in both for autocratizing countries compared to democratizing or stable countries.
Limitations of Crisp Categories: The report acknowledges that classifying countries into distinct regime types based on continuous V-Dem measures involves "inherently arbitrary cut-offs".
Quote: "It is difficult to overemphasize this fundamental point: classification of countries into different distinct types presupposes an underlying theoretical notion of qualitative differences between one type and another... What we are mainly talking about here, however, are countries that all hold elections and that thus only differ among themselves in terms of things such as the degree of certain freedoms enjoyed by their citizens or the degree of the judicial and legislative constraints on the executive. There is nothing qualitative that differs among countries falling just above or just below a certain threshold imposed on these underlying continuous scales. This makes any classification of a country into a 'liberal' or simply 'electoral democracy' inherently arbitrary."
Conclusion:
The V-Dem Democracy Report 2025 presents a stark assessment of the global democratic landscape, indicating a significant retreat of liberal democracy over the past 25 years. The detailed data and methodology highlight concerning trends in core democratic principles and institutions in a substantial number of countries. While instances of democratic recovery exist, the prevalence of autocratization episodes suggests a challenging future for democracy worldwide. The inclusion of the United States on a watchlist for potential democratic breakdown underscores the broad scope of these concerns.
Further Information:
The V-Dem website (www.v-dem.net) and associated platforms like Demscore offer access to the underlying data and tools for further exploration.
Quiz & Answer Key
Quiz
What is the primary goal of the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project as described in the source?
How many data points does the V-Dem dataset contain and for how many countries and years?
According to the report, what percentage of the V-Dem expert coders are born or reside in the main country they code?
What are the four main regime types classified in the Regimes of the World (RoW) typology used in the report?
What does the term "grey zone" refer to in the context of the Regimes of the World (RoW) typology?
Based on Figure 6, which region has the largest share of its population living in Closed Autocracies?
According to the report, what is the threshold of change on the Electoral Democracy Index (EDI) that indicates a substantial change for an autocratization or democratization episode using the ERT method?
What is a "bell-turn" episode of regime transformation?
What are "near misses" according to the report, and what is the threshold used to identify them on the EDI scale?
What is the primary difference between the Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) and the Electoral Democracy Index (EDI)?
Answer Key
The primary goal of the V-Dem project is to provide a unique, historical, multidimensional, nuanced, and disaggregated approach to measuring democracy using state-of-the-art methodology.
The V-Dem dataset contains over 31 million data points for 202 countries from 1789 to 2024.
According to the report, 61% of the V-Dem expert coders are born or reside in the main country they code.
The four main regime types are Liberal Democracies, Electoral Democracies, Electoral Autocracies, and Closed Autocracies.
A "grey zone" refers to countries where the confidence intervals of their classification overlap with another regime type, making their classification more uncertain due to potential measurement errors.
Based on Figure 6, South and Central Asia has the largest share of its population living in Closed Autocracies (93%).
The threshold for a substantial change indicating an episode using the ERT method is greater than 0.1 on the Electoral Democracy Index (EDI).
A "bell-turn" is an episode where democratization is directly followed by autocratization.
"Near misses" are countries that have changes between 0.05 and 0.1 on the EDI scale and are at least halfway towards the threshold for autocratization or democratization.
The LDI captures both liberal and electoral aspects of democracy, while the EDI specifically focuses on the institutional features related to electoral democracy as outlined by Robert Dahl's "polyarchy."
Essay Questions
Discuss the V-Dem project's approach to measuring democracy, highlighting its unique characteristics and the methodology employed, including the role of country experts and the use of data points.
Analyze the trends in global democracy presented in the report, using the provided figures (such as Figure 2 and Figure 3) to illustrate how democracy levels are measured and have changed over time, considering different weighting methods.
Examine the classification of countries into different regime types using the Regimes of the World (RoW) typology as presented in Table 1 and Figure 6. Discuss the limitations of this classification, particularly the concept of "grey zones" and the inherent arbitrariness of imposing sharp boundaries on continuous scales.
Explain the ERT (Episodes of Regime Transformation) methodology used by V-Dem to identify and classify autocratization and democratization episodes. Provide examples of countries undergoing these transformations as illustrated in Figures 13 and 17, and discuss the concepts of "bell-turns" and "U-turns."
Discuss the concept of "near misses" and "watchlist" countries as presented in the report, using Figure 23 and Tables 11 and 12 to illustrate how these categories are identified and what they signify regarding potential future democratic trajectories.
Glossary of Key Terms
Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem): A project producing a large global dataset on democracy with a historical, multidimensional, nuanced, and disaggregated approach.
Autocratization: A process of democratic decline or movement towards a more autocratic regime.
Democratization: A process of democratic improvement or movement towards a more democratic regime.
Expert Coders: Scholars and country experts involved in providing judgments on over 600 different attributes of democracy for the V-Dem dataset.
Regimes of the World (RoW): A typology used in the report to classify countries into four main regime types based on V-Dem data.
Liberal Democracy: A regime type characterized by strong liberal and electoral aspects of democracy.
Electoral Democracy: A regime type primarily characterized by the institutional features that guarantee free and fair elections (based on Robert Dahl's "polyarchy").
Electoral Autocracy: A regime type that holds elections but lacks many of the key features of an electoral democracy, often with significant limitations on freedoms and checks on executive power.
Closed Autocracy: A regime type that does not hold genuine multi-party elections and severely restricts political freedoms.
Grey Zone: A classification used for countries where the confidence intervals of their regime type classification overlap, indicating uncertainty.
Liberal Democracy Index (LDI): A composite index in the V-Dem dataset that captures both liberal and electoral dimensions of democracy.
Electoral Democracy Index (EDI): A composite index in the V-Dem dataset that measures the institutional features of electoral democracy.
Liberal Component Index (LCI): A component index of the LDI that captures liberal aspects such as equality before the law and individual liberties.
Deliberative Component Index (DCI): A component index in the V-Dem dataset that captures the extent to which political decisions are reached through public reasoning focused on the common good.
Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT): A methodology used by V-Dem to identify significant changes in a country's level of democracy, classifying them as autocratization or democratization episodes.
Bell-Turn: An episode of regime transformation where democratization is directly followed by autocratization.
U-Turn: An episode of regime transformation where autocratization is closely followed by democratization.
Near Misses: Countries with changes between 0.05 and 0.1 on the EDI scale, indicating they are at least halfway towards an autocratization or democratization threshold.
Watchlist: Countries that are above a higher threshold (0.075 on the EDI) for potential autocratization or democratization.
Point Estimate: In the V-Dem measurement model, the best estimate of a concept's value.
Confidence Intervals: Credible regions representing a range of probable values for a point estimate, indicating uncertainty in the measurement.
Significant Differences or Changes: Occur when the confidence intervals for two point estimates do not overlap, suggesting the difference is not due to measurement error.
Demscore: A research infrastructure offering harmonized social science data, including V-Dem data, across multiple domains.
Timeline of Main Events
1789: The V-Dem project begins collecting data on democracy.
1974: The V-Dem project begins consistently measuring Liberal Democracy by country averages and population weights.
1997: Timor-Leste begins a democratization episode (U-turn).
1999: El Salvador establishes an electoral democracy.
2005: Argentina begins an autocratization episode.
2006: El Salvador begins a period of democratic deepening, improving on its electoral democracy established in 1999.
2006: Solomon Islands begins a democratization episode (stand-alone).
2008: Indonesia begins an autocratization episode.
2008: South Korea begins an autocratization episode.
2008: Ukraine begins an autocratization episode.
2009: Afghanistan begins an autocratization episode.
2009: Belarus begins an autocratization episode.
2009: Mongolia begins an autocratization episode.
2010: Sudan begins an autocratization episode.
2011: Niger's general election establishes the country as an electoral democracy.
2012: Libya begins an autocratization episode.
2012: Seychelles begins a democratization episode (stand-alone).
2012: Ukraine's autocratization episode continues.
2012: Moldova begins an autocratization episode.
2013: Fiji begins a democratization episode (stand-alone).
2013: Libya's autocratization episode begins.
2014: Guinea begins an autocratization episode.
2014: Haiti begins an autocratization episode.
2014: Mauritania begins an autocratization episode.
2014: Mexico begins an autocratization episode.
2014: Pakistan begins an autocratization episode.
2014: Philippines begins an autocratization episode.
2015: Central African Republic (CAR) begins an autocratization episode.
2015: Myanmar begins an autocratization episode.
2015: Niger begins an autocratization episode.
2015: Serbia begins an autocratization episode.
2016: Cyprus begins a potential autocratization episode ("near miss").
2016: Mali begins an autocratization episode.
2016: Conflicts in Mali begin to affect Niger, leading to government restrictions on freedom of expression.
2016: Ukraine's autocratization episode continues.
2017: Burkina Faso begins an autocratization episode.
2017: El Salvador's democratic deepening period ends and a bell-turn reversal begins.
2017: Georgia begins an autocratization episode.
2017: Namibia begins a potential autocratization episode ("near miss").
2018: Comoros begins an autocratization episode.
2018: Guyana begins an autocratization episode.
2018: Lebanon begins an autocratization episode.
2018: Mozambique begins an autocratization episode.
2018: Sri Lanka begins a democratization episode (stand-alone).
2019: Armenia begins an autocratization episode.
2019: Dominican Republic begins a democratization episode (stand-alone).
2019: El Salvador's bell-turn reversal is marked by the election of President Nayib Bukele.
2019: Greece begins an autocratization episode.
2019: Hong Kong begins an autocratization episode.
2019: Hungary begins an autocratization episode.
2019: India begins an autocratization episode.
2019: Maldives begins a democratization episode (U-turn).
2019: Montenegro begins a democratization episode (stand-alone).
2019: Nicaragua begins an autocratization episode.
2019: Peru begins an autocratization episode.
2019: Romania begins an autocratization episode.
2019: Senegal begins an autocratization episode.
2020: Brazil begins a democratization episode (U-turn).
2020: Ecuador begins a democratization episode (U-turn).
2020: Honduras begins a democratization episode (stand-alone).
2020-2021: Niger holds general elections, marking the country's first democratic transition of power.
2020: Poland begins a democratization episode (U-turn).
2020: Romania's autocratization episode begins.
2020: Russia begins a potential autocratization episode ("near miss").
2020: Tanzania begins an autocratization episode.
2020: Togo begins a potential autocratization episode ("near miss").
2020: Tunisia begins a democratization episode (U-turn).
2020: Zambia begins a democratization episode (U-turn).
2021: El Salvador: President Bukele's party wins a supermajority in parliamentary elections.
2021: The Gambia begins a democratization episode (stand-alone).
2021: Malaysia begins a potential democratization episode ("watchlist").
2021: Czechia begins a potential democratization episode ("watchlist").
2022: Georgia's autocratization episode continues.
2022: Madagascar begins a potential autocratization episode ("near miss").
2022: Slovakia begins a potential autocratization episode ("watchlist").
2022: Slovenia begins a potential autocratization episode ("watchlist").
July 2023: Niger's newly elected government is overthrown by a military junta, establishing a closed autocracy.
2023: Guatemala begins a potential democratization episode ("watchlist"), a notable turning point after featuring as an autocratizer in 2024.
2024: The V-Dem Democracy Report 2025 is published, covering data up to 2024.
2024: El Salvador: President Bukele is re-elected after manipulating term limits.
2024: Dominican Republic: President Luis Abinader is re-elected and is serving his last term.
March 2025: Copyright date for the Democracy Report 2025.
Cast of Characters
Nayib Bukele: President of El Salvador, elected in 2019. Described as an "outsider" and self-proclaimed "world's coolest dictator." His presidency is marked by clashes with parliament, arbitrary arrests, mass incarcerations, restrictions on freedom of expression, forced retirement of judges, and manipulation of term limits.
Luis Abinader: President of the Dominican Republic, elected in 2020 and re-elected in 2024. His presidency has seen a deepening of democracy through constitutional reforms aimed at safeguarding judicial independence and guaranteeing the alternation of power. He is currently serving his last term.
Bernardo Arévalo: Opposition candidate in the 2023 Guatemalan election, supported by a broad coalition. He defeated the ruling elites at the ballot, marking a notable turning point towards potential democratization for Guatemala.
Robert Dahl: Mentioned in the context of V-Dem's measurement of "electoral democracy," which is based on his articulation of "polyarchy." He is a renowned political scientist known for his work on democracy and pluralism.
Elon Musk: Mentioned in relation to "DOGE" (likely a satirical reference to a powerful organization) and his alleged access to sensitive information despite conflicts of interest. The source indicates lawsuits arguing that DOGE has flouted data and privacy laws and has fired a significant number of government employees, including USAID officers.
Myles Williamson: Co-author of "Democracy in Trouble: Democratic Resilience and Breakdown from 1900 to 2022," a publication from the V-Dem Team.
Christopher Akor: Co-author of "Democracy in Trouble: Democratic Resilience and Breakdown from 1900 to 2022," a publication from the V-Dem Team.
Amanda B. Edgell: Co-author of "Democracy in Trouble: Democratic Resilience and Breakdown from 1900 to 2022," a publication from the V-Dem Team.
G. O’Donnell: Cited for "Horizontal Accountability in New Democracies," published in the Journal of Democracy.
Y. Sato: Co-author of "Institutional Order in Episodes of Autocratization," a V-Dem Working Paper.
Anna Lührmann: Co-author of the publication outlining the Regimes of the World (RoW) typology in "Politics and Governance."
Marcus Tannenberg: Co-author of the publication outlining the Regimes of the World (RoW) typology in "Politics and Governance."
Staffan I. Lindberg: Co-author of the publication outlining the Regimes of the World (RoW) typology in "Politics and Governance."
Mou, Liu, and Xu: Developers of the PanelView R package used for visualizing the history of Regimes of the World.
Fariss et al.: Authors of the publication "New Estimates of Over 500 Years of Historic GDP and Population Data," cited for data included in the V-Dem dataset.
FAQ
What is the V-Dem project and what is its approach to measuring democracy?
Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) is a large-scale project that aims to measure democracy in a comprehensive, historical, multidimensional, nuanced, and disaggregated way. It utilizes a state-of-the-art methodology involving over 4,200 scholars and country experts globally. V-Dem measures over 600 different attributes of democracy and produces a vast dataset with millions of data points covering 202 countries from 1789 to 2024. Their approach is unique in its depth and breadth, aiming to capture the de facto existence of democratic institutions, not just formal rules.
How is the V-Dem data collected and validated?
V-Dem data is collected through the input of over 4,200 country experts, many of whom are born or reside in the countries they code, ensuring local knowledge is integrated with global standards. These experts assess various attributes of democracy using rough ordinal categories. The V-Dem measurement model then converts these expert ratings into a single continuous latent scale, providing a best estimate (point estimate) and an uncertainty estimate (confidence intervals). The model algorithmically estimates expert reliability and scale perception, weighting their contributions accordingly. This methodology has undergone extensive peer review and is published in high-ranking scientific journals.
What are the main types of regimes identified by the V-Dem project in 2024?
Based on the Regimes of the World (RoW) typology, which draws on various V-Dem measures, countries are classified into four main regime types in 2024: Liberal Democracies, Electoral Democracies, Electoral Autocracies, and Closed Autocracies. The typology also includes "grey zone" subcategories for countries where confidence intervals overlap, indicating uncertainty in their classification and that they could potentially belong to an adjacent category.
How does V-Dem identify episodes of democratization and autocratization?
V-Dem uses the Electoral Regime Transformation (ERT) method to identify episodes of significant democratic change. This method looks for accumulated annual changes greater than 0.1 on the Electoral Democracy Index (EDI) over several years. Smaller changes (less than 0.05 on the EDI) are considered mere fluctuations. If a country experiences a substantial decline on the EDI, it's classified as autocratizing; if it experiences a substantial increase, it's classified as democratizing. The ERT method has been scientifically vetted and published.
Which regions of the world have the highest and lowest levels of democracy according to the 2024 data?
Based on the share of population living under different regime types, Western Europe and North America have the highest percentage of their population living in Liberal Democracies (82%). Conversely, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has the lowest overall level of democracy, with a significant majority of its population living in Electoral Autocracies (67%) and Closed Autocracies (31%).
What are some examples of countries currently undergoing autocratization or democratization episodes?
As of 2024, the report identifies 45 countries undergoing autocratization and 19 undergoing democratization. Examples of countries autocratizing include Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Niger, Myanmar, and Indonesia, which have shown significant declines on the Liberal Democracy Index. Examples of countries democratizing include Fiji, Seychelles, Solomon Islands, Dominican Republic, and Honduras, which have shown notable improvements. The report also details "Bell-Turns" (democratization followed by autocratization, like El Salvador) and "U-Turns" (autocratization followed by democratization, like Tunisia).
What are "near misses" and "Watchlist" countries in the V-Dem report?
"Near misses" are countries where the changes on the Electoral Democracy Index are between 0.05 and 0.1, indicating they are at least halfway towards the threshold for autocratization or democratization, but the classification remains somewhat uncertain. Countries with changes above a higher threshold (0.075 on the EDI) are placed on the "Watchlist," signifying they are close to qualifying as confirmed autocratizers or democratizers. Examples of Watchlist autocratizers include Slovakia and Slovenia, while Watchlist democratizers include Guatemala and Malaysia.
What specific aspects of democracy are worsening globally according to the report?
The report highlights several aspects of democracy that are worsening in a significant number of countries. These include the extent to which society is engaged in policy debates and the range of elite consultations. Furthermore, liberal aspects of democracy are declining, such as transparent laws with predictable enforcement, the legislature's capacity to investigate the executive, and the increasing frequency of political killings by the state or its agents for political reasons. The report also notes that violence, media freedom, and polarization are worsening the most among the measured indicators.
Table of Contents with Timestamps
00:00 - Introduction
Opening remarks introducing Heliox and its approach to deep conversations on important topics.
00:25 - Setting the Stage
Framing the episode's focus on the Democracy Report 2025 from the V-Dem Institute, explaining its importance and scope.
01:08 - Report Overview
Explaining the scale of the V-Dem report, covering 202 countries with over 31 million data points tracking democratic features.
01:48 - Main Findings
Discussing the report's headline conclusion: global democratic decline is accelerating across all metrics.
02:26 - Statistics on Democratic Decline
Detailing the concerning statistics: 72% of the world's population now lives in autocracies, and there are more autocracies (91) than democracies (88).
03:30 - The Third Wave of Autocratization
Examining the 25-year trend of rising autocratization that continues to accelerate, affecting 3.1 billion people.
04:40 - Democratic Backsliding in Established Democracies
Revealing how even North America and Western Europe have seen democracy scores fall to levels last seen around 1983.
05:03 - Democracy-to-Autocracy Conversion Rate
Discussing the alarming 67% "fatality rate" of democracies that begin autocratizing.
05:37 - Weapons of Autocratization
Analyzing the primary tools used to dismantle democracies, with attacks on freedom of expression being the most common.
07:09 - Bright Spots: Democratizing Countries
Highlighting the 19 countries (representing 6% of global population) that are moving toward democracy.
07:49 - U-turn Democratizations
Examining countries that have successfully reversed autocratization, including Poland, Botswana, and Brazil.
09:09 - Case Studies of Active Autocratization
Reviewing countries currently experiencing democratic decline, including Greece, Mexico, and Indonesia.
10:41 - The V-Dem Watch List
Introducing the new early warning system identifying countries showing signs of potential autocratization or democratization.
12:03 - Disinformation and Polarization
Discussing the relationship between disinformation, polarization, and democratic change.
12:33 - Conclusion
Summarizing the report's findings, balancing concerns with signs of democratic resilience.
14:03 - Closing Remarks
Final thoughts on the podcast's recurring themes and invitation to explore more content.
Index with Timestamps
Academic freedom, 06:56
Afghanistan, 06:31, 07:03
Attacks on freedom of expression, 05:40, 05:47, 10:29
Autocracies, 02:31, 03:01, 03:10, 03:21, 10:07, 10:18
Autocratization, 04:03, 04:08, 08:12, 08:25, 09:10, 09:25, 09:38, 12:19, 12:46
Belarus, 03:41, 06:45
Botswana, 08:25, 13:09
Brazil, 07:34, 08:42, 13:09
Burkina Faso, 10:18
Censorship, media, 06:00, 06:11, 06:17, 09:45
Chad, 11:42
Civil society organizations, 06:36, 06:45
Closed autocracy, 03:41, 03:44, 10:18
Cultural expression, 06:53
Cyprus, 11:10
Czechia, 11:42, 11:46
Democracy Report 2025, 00:45, 13:51
Democratic decline, 02:03, 02:08, 04:40
Democratization, 07:15, 07:26, 08:12, 10:58, 11:39, 12:06, 12:19
Disinformation, 11:59, 12:06
Eastern Europe, 04:34
El Salvador, 06:31, 10:25
Electoral autocracy, 09:38, 10:04
Electoral democracy, 08:51, 09:10, 09:25, 09:31
Freedom of expression, 05:40, 05:47, 10:29
Georgia, 10:04, 10:08
Gray zone, 09:31, 09:34, 09:38
Guatemala, 08:33
Hong Kong, 07:03
Hungary, 07:03
India, 06:31, 06:45, 07:03
Indonesia, 10:04, 10:13
Lesotho, 08:43
Liberal democracy, 03:18, 03:21, 11:22
Madagascar, 11:11
Mali, 10:18
Maldives, 08:52
Mauritius, 09:34, 09:38
Mexico, 09:25, 09:31
Military coups, 10:18
Mozambique, 11:42
Myanmar, 06:31
Namibia, 11:11
Nicaragua, 07:03
Niger, 10:18
North America, 04:46
Peru, 06:45
Philippines, 06:45
Poland, 07:34, 08:18, 13:09
Political polarization, 12:11, 12:16, 12:26
Rule of law, 03:18, 09:10
Russia, 07:03, 11:11
Slovakia, 11:11
Slovenia, 11:11, 11:30, 11:46
South and Central Asia, 04:34
Thailand, 07:34
Third wave of autocratization, 04:03, 04:08
Togo, 11:11
Tunisia, 06:45
U-turn democratizations, 08:01, 08:04, 08:12
V-Dem Institute, 00:45, 11:22, 13:51
Watch list, 10:41, 10:45, 11:05
Western Europe, 04:46
Zambia, 08:51
Poll
Post-Episode Fact Check
Fact Check for "Democracy Report 2025: 25 Years of Autocratization"
Verified Facts:
✓ V-Dem Institute Report: The podcast accurately discusses the Democracy Report 2025 from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute, which does track democratic indicators across countries.
✓ 72% in Autocracies: The statistic that 72% of the world's population (5.8 billion people) live in autocracies matches V-Dem's recent reporting, representing the highest percentage since 1978.
✓ Autocracies Outnumber Democracies: The podcast correctly states that there are now more autocracies (91) than democracies (88) in the world for the first time since 2002.
✓ Liberal Democracies: The claim that only 29 liberal democracies remain, representing about 12% of the global population, aligns with V-Dem findings.
✓ Methods of Autocratization: The podcast accurately identifies media censorship and attacks on freedom of expression as primary tools used in democratic backsliding.
✓ Democracy Breakdown in Specific Countries: References to democratic decline in countries like Belarus, Georgia, Indonesia, and El Salvador are consistent with V-Dem assessments.
✓ U-turn Democratizations: The discussion of democratic recovery in Poland, Brazil, and Botswana reflects V-Dem's documentation of these positive cases.
Qualifications/Clarifications:
⚠️ Timing of Report: The podcast frames this as the "Democracy Report 2025" and references data through the end of 2024. V-Dem typically releases annual reports in the early part of each year covering the previous year's data.
⚠️ Future Projection about US: The reference to the report expressing concerns about democratic weakening in the US after "President Trump's recent inauguration" appears speculative, as the V-Dem report would likely not make such forward-looking political statements.
⚠️ "Fatality Rate": While the 67% conversion rate of autocratizing democracies is likely accurate based on V-Dem methodology, the term "fatality rate" may be a simplification of their technical terminology.
⚠️ Watch List: The podcast's description of a "watch list" as an early warning system aligns with V-Dem's approach, but the specific countries listed should be verified against the official report.
Conclusion:
The podcast provides a generally accurate representation of V-Dem's findings regarding global democratic decline. The core statistics and trends discussed align with V-Dem's research methodology and recent reports. Some terminology may be simplified for audience accessibility, and the framing of the report as "2025" looking back at 2024 creates a temporal ambiguity that should be noted.
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